On Sunday, Barcelona fans face something approaching their worst nightmare. Sworn enemies Real Madrid are in town and Lionel Messi is sidelined, nursing a broken arm.
Julen Lopetegui’s side are struggling but Messi’s absence would offer understandable encouragement to any team, let alone one often on the receiving end of his most remarkable deeds.
Across all competitions, the five-time Ballon d’Or winner has scored 26 goals in 38 matches versus Los Blancos, with 18 in 24 LaLiga encounters. Both hauls stand as records in the fixture’s rich history.
From not long after Messi flowered into a generation-defining talent under Pep Guardiola a decade ago, the phenomenon dubbed “Messidependencia” has been regularly discussed.
But do his LaLiga numbers back that up? With the help of our friends at Opta, we had a dig around to try and find out.
Messi already had a stunning Clasico hat-trick to his name as a teenager, serving notice of his boundless potential in 2007. It was when Guardiola arrived the following year that he began to enter unchartered footballing territory.
Guardiola famously switched Messi to a ‘false nine’ role during the early stages of the May 2009 Clasico at the Santiago Bernabeu. His star forward scored twice in a 6-2 demolition and would come to redefine his new position for the modern era.
Cristiano Ronaldo arrived in the Spanish capital as Madrid responded to Barca’s treble in Guardiola’s maiden season, igniting an enduring debate over which man is the best player in the world.
At the time, Ronaldo disciples would argue their man could win games on his own, while Messi predominantly thrived as the member of Barcelona’s slick machine.
Nevertheless, he established a remarkably consistent record of being responsible for around half of his team’s goals. Messi’s 138 strikes and 55 assists represented 46.84 per cent of Barca’s LaLiga goals under Guardiola, while their win percentage dropped from 77.9 per cent to 62.5 per cent when he did not play.
Luis Enrique gave plenty of notice over his 2017 departure but Neymar stunned the footballing world by jumping ship to Paris Saint-Germain.
A more pragmatic Blaugrana has emerged under Ernesto Valverde that seems to hark back to the Guardiola era in one notable way.
“I was his coach and we were planning and I thought that – we will get the ball to Messi and that’s that, we will score.” Guardiola told Radio Catalunya, underplaying the majesty of his overall ensemble with a touch of self-deprecation.
Under Valverde, with Messi granted a free reign to come deep and fetch possession when he sees fit, this increasingly appears to be the reality.
As a measure of Messidependencia, his overall goal involvement is back up beyond Guardiola-era levels. Since the start of last season, 41 goals and 17 assists account for 47.54 per cent of Barca’s total.
Ousmane Dembele and Malcom were unused substitutes as a Messi-less Barca beat Inter 2-0 in midweek, with Valverde’s apparent conclusion being the burden of his absence is one for the collective and not an understudy attacker.
The plan might lack imagination but it should be enough to see off a woefully out-of-sorts Madrid.