Latest Poll Reveals Who Will Win in Kibra By-election if Held Today

A poll by Consortium of Researchers on Governance (CoRG) shows that ODM candidate for Kibra by-election, Bernard Otieno Okoth, will trounce his competitors on November 7.

Jubilee candidate for Kibra MacDonald Mariga, ANC’s Eliud Owalo and ODM’s Imran Otieno Okoth [Photo, Courtesy]

The survey, which was conducted between September 27 and October 24, established that Okoth leads with 41%, followed by Jubilee’s MacDonald Mariga with 27%. Amani National Congress candidate Eliud Owalo comes third with 18%.

The graphs showing the candidates’ popularity. Okoth leads with 41% followed by Mariga with 27% while Owalo comes third with 18%.

The polling firm noted that a total of 201 respondents were interviewed twice with the sample size having a 95% confidence level and a 5% margin of error.

The survey found that Okoth leads in Makina Ward, Sarangómbe Ward and Lindi Ward. Mariga, on the other hand, leads in Laini Saba Ward and Woodley/Racecourse Ward.

Okoth leading in Makina Ward
Okoth leading in Sarang’ombe Ward
Mariga leading in Laini Saba Ward


Mariga leads in Woodley Ward

According to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission, Kibra Constituency has 118, 658 voters. Sarang’ombe has the most registered voters at 30,754, followed by Woodley/Kenyatta Golf  Course and Makina which have 28, 066 and 25, 695 respectively. Laini Saba has 17,455 registered voters, and Lindi 16, 688.

Some findings from the survey are that the best campaign strategies the candidates can adopt include door-to-door and small barazas in order to address specific issues in the various areas.

CoRG also noted that the majority of the male voters in Makina, Laini Saba, Lindi and Sarangómbe are labourers who will be working on the election date, hence there may be a lower voter turnout.

The aspiring candidates should, therefore, focus on wooing females and the youth who are likely to vote on the election day.

It is not the first poll that CoRG has released this year. In March, it ranked Kakamega County boss Wycliffe Oparanya as the best performing governor (87%) followed by Kirinyanga County’s Anne Waiguru.

Governors that tailed in the report include Nyeri’s Mutahi Kahiga (34%), Siaya’s Cornel Rasanga (33%) and Samburu’s Moses Kasaine (32%).

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