In politics, there are no permanent friends or enemies only permanent interests. Kenya lives a testimony to this saying.
In 2002, when Kanu was considered the only party of the time, small political changers comprising of Raila Odinga, Mwai Kibaki and the late Kijana Wamalwa came together to form a formidable team against the then Kanu candidate Uhuru Kenyatta.
Many didn’t believe that Raila and Kibaki who had been reading from two different political scripts for a long time could be brought together by a common interest to defeat the dominant Kanu regime in 20o2.
The same case was witnessed in 2007 when Raila together with his Pentagon team comprising of Deputy president William Ruto together with others came together under a common interest to defeat Kibaki regime in what was considered as 40 against 1.
In 2013, the two opposing rivals President Uhuru Kenyatta together with the then Eldoret North MP William Ruto came together under the Jubilee coalition with two main objectives; to defeat opposition Leader Raila Odinga and the Hague based case which was staring at the two.
“If Uhuru can work with Raila then I can not rule out Raila and Ruto working together in the coming elections. I have once worked with them in the Pentagon and they know each other well,” former Cooperatives minister Joseph Nyagah told a local media house recently.
“Raila and Ruto know each other well and I ask them to tone down to focus on what is good for the nation’s good governance, equality and stability,” added Nyagah.
These examples alone show the trend and nature of Kenyan politics. Two warring parties might be exchanging verbal words today but will come to work together tomorrow under the same interests.
Analysts opine that both Raila Odinga and William Ruto have fallen into president Uhuru Kenyatta’s trap. According to them, Ruto was used by Uhuru in 2013 and 2017 to clinch the presidency seat. After 2017, Uhuru surprisingly turned his back on Ruto just because his mission was already accomplished.
With Uhuru’s second term coming to an end in 2017 and still being young to retire, Uhuru saw an opportunity in his big brother Raila Odinga. First Uhuru caged Raila through the March 2018 handshake in an aim to have his tenure run smoothly without any oppositions.
Secondly, Uhuru saw an opportunity to use Raila’s massive command of support and popularity among many Kenyans to advocate for a constitutional change through a referendum vote in order to create for himself a Prime Minister’s position. This will ensure that Uhuru maintains his status as the country’s top leader beyond 2022.
With Uhuru’s success in changing the constitution, Raila will definitely be shown the door just like Deputy President William Ruto. With all the executive powers gone back to the Prime Minister (Uthamaki) the Orange house will refuse to play second fiddles through a ceremonial President.
This alone will lead to a massive revolt against the Uthamaki rule. In order to bring to an end this rule, Deputy President William Ruto will be left with no option other than to negotiate with the ODM leader Raila Odinga.
With the same interests and objective in mind, Raila and Ruto will form a formidable coalition that will bring to an end Mt. Kenya dominance in Kenya’s top political posts, the Presidency.