Shrewd political organiser? Documents reveal Raila was never an option

Image result for ICC trials to dUhuruAccording to a document titled “State House 2012”,President Uhuru’s campaign strategy in 2013  was to select a candidate who could help him climb over the threshold and likely candidates oscillated between Kalonzo, Ruto, Mudavadi and Wamalwa.

Raila was never an option.

The strategists believed that Raila’s would be his last stab at the presidency, underscoring the high stakes for him to win or go bust.Image result for raila odinga
Says the document: ”Raila Odinga has a strong and cohesive voting bloc of 10 per cent in Nyanza. He has tremendous energy and is a shrewd political organiser. He is determined to attain the leadership of the country at any cost.”
It states that the winning formula was to join forces with Ruto and rope in Mr Kalonzo Musyoka, or Mr Wamalwa to get over the 50 per cent-plus-one vote threshold and avoid a run-off.

 

Image result for dp ruto
“Statistically, the best option would be to join with Ruto…this would be an outright victory with no run-off,” according to the strategy that sought to rid the ticket of “unnecessary complications”.
A possible union with Ruto, however, was complicated by the situation on the ground after the post-election violence where Ruto was viewed in Central Kenya as a villain.
It states: “(Ruto) has emerged as foremost leader of the Kalenjin over Moi and what he has accomplished he would not be willing to roll back.

Uhuru Kenyatta’s political strategists believed that they could not work with William Ruto in their quest for the presidency because he would not agree to play second fiddle, according to a leaked dossier.Related image

The top secret document prepared just before the International Criminal Court (ICC) pre-trials began, and which formed the heart of Uhuru’s campaign strategy for the March 2013 General Election, believed the presidency would be won by a candidate from one of the big five communities — the Kalenjin, Kikuyu, Luo, Luhya or Akamba.
It also argued that Ruto, now Deputy President, would probably lose in a run-off with Uhuru. The document projected that in an election, Ruto would be placed ahead of Raila — whom they believed would finish third in the first round.Image result for statehouse kenya

The document titled “State House 2012” provides interesting insights into how the Uhuru think tank viewed other candidates in the race, how they strongly believed that ethnic blocs would carry the day, and how they toyed with the idea of dangling carrots to the smaller communities to get them to back Uhuru.
It was prepared by what is described by impeccable sources as Uhuru’s “election war council,” a nerve centre made up of at least eight people. The team comprised politicians, businessmen, political strategists and lawyers and formed the heart of Uhuru’s presidential campaign.

The strategy included a comprehensive hypothetical election poll forecast done at least three months to the the elections, which compared Uhuru’s and Raila’s fortunes in every county.
The strategists believed that Raila would dominate the campaign trail with the issue of devolution, and hence developed a counter strategy.Image result for 2013 elections uhuru They also believed that Raila would use the ICC trials to discredit Uhuru, execute a populist agenda and rekindle the majimbo debate to win the elections.
The document states: “Raila Odinga: Revamp ODM and go directly to the people doing populist things, rekindle majimbo through the county debate.

The think tank argued that Mr Eugene Wamalwa offered the most obvious choice for Deputy President, describing him as “non-threatening and inexperienced”.
According to the document, Uhuru would have offered former Mandera Central MP Abdikadir Mohamed the post of National Assembly Speaker, a position currently occupied by Mr Justin Muturi.
Mr Simeon Nyachae would have ended up as Senate Speaker if he had agreed to gun for it.

Image result for musalia mudavadi

Mr Musalia Mudavadi was viewed as having the support of only non-Bukusu voters in Western region, making up only 9 per cent of the voting bloc but with “an almost non-existent chance at the presidency and even with Uhuru as his running mate, the Mount Kenya region vote would not be reliable,” the document reveals. Mudavadi would not make the run-off unless he had the support of Raila Odinga, according to the document. Mr Wamalwa was seen as the emerging Bukusu leader capable of bringing to the table 5 per cent.Image result for eugene wamalwa
It states: “In the last elections, Bukusu voters gave Kibaki 32 per cent of the Luhya vote… Wamalwa has a lesser chance of winning than MM (Musalia Mudavadi)”.
The late Prof George Saitoti was described as a hybrid of the Kikuyu and Maasai voters, but had “failed to harness and obtain any of them as a voting bloc.”Image result for statehouse kenya
The think tank began on the premise that they believed that of all the candidates, Uhuru was the only one virtually guaranteed of being in the run-off because of the Mount Kenya support. “Can we win? In the immortal words of Barack Obama, “Yes We Can!” the document states.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *