Why Ruto allies are chasing waterfalls with Uhuru’s impeachment agenda

A bid to impeach President Uhuru Kenyatta may be difficult given the high threshold needed for such a Motion to be successful.

Yesterday, MPs and constitutional lawyers explained that political wrangling could not be fronted as ground for impeachment.

The President has to be guilty of gross violation of the Constitution, or commit a serious crime.

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The MPs argued that even if such a Motion were to find its way to the National Assembly, it would be defeated by the prevailing political environment.

This is because lawmakers would be whipped to support the President by party leaders keen to run for president in 2022, and who would not want to hand an advantage to their competitor – Deputy President William Ruto.

The Constitution provides that the Deputy President takes over power for the remainder of the term should the President be impeached.

The political turbulence within Jubilee has kicked off talks of an impeachment Motion against Uhuru by MPs allied to Mr Ruto.

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But questions whether such a Motion can marshal the required two-thirds, let alone meeting the constitutional threshold for impeachment, loomed large yesterday.

Opposition MPs and political analysts described the threats as political hyperbole that had high chances of backfiring and crashing Ruto’s political ambition, should his allies attempt it.

They argued that the current political environment did not favour Ruto.

This is because the Opposition MPs allied to Uhuru would vote against such a Motion to either protect the President or block Ruto from assuming the top seat as part of succession politics plans.

MPs allied to ODM leader Raila Odinga, Musalia Mudavadi (ANC), Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper) and Kanu’s Gideon Moi would generally gang up against such a Motion since by supporting it, they would hand Ruto the presidency.

Jubilee has 171 MPs in the National Assembly. Out of these, it is envisaged that only MPs allied to Ruto would stand by him.

This implies that his troops would be short of the requisite 233 MPs required for such a motion to sail through.

Parties led by Raila, Mudavadi, Moi, Kalonzo and Bungoma Senator Moses Wetang’ula have a total 136 MPs, which is enough to deny the House the required number, assuming all the other MPs vote in support, which is also very unlikely.

The other 14 small parties have a total of 31 members, while independent MPs are 11. These numbers can vote either way and may insignificantly tilt the equation.

Such a Motion would also have difficulties in meeting the grounds for impeachment that include demonstrating that the President has violated the provisions of the Constitution, or is incapacitated to continue discharging his mandate.

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