Is Deputy President William Ruto quietly shifting his position on the looming referendum?
According to a local daily, Politicians and close allies say the DP will from the New Year campaign for the creation of an executive Prime Minister position in the event of a referendum.
In this proposal, Ruto’s team will press also for a ceremonial President and his deputy and two deputy Prime Ministers.
In a parliamentary system, the leader of the party with the largest number of MPs becomes the PM. The party leader is typically elected by party delegates during party polls. The president is normally a ceremonial Head of State.
In the event a party does not get more than 50 per cent of MPs in order to form government, the party leader can cobble together a coalition of other like-minded parties to make a majority.
Ruto has been forced into a tactical shift, according to his confidants, because he believes the writing is on the wall and he can longer bank on President Kenyatta’s support in 2022.
His handlers believe a parliamentary system will end the fratricidal wars sparked off by presidential election results every five years which is politically untenable in a young democracy because of the “tyranny of numbers”. The presidential duel, his allies say, is politically and socially too polarising for a country which needs cohesion after years of ethnic mistrust.
Ethnic alliances between the Kikuyu, Luhya, Kalenjins, Luo and Kamba traditionally determined who gets the job of President.
If Uhuru does not endorse his number two for the top job it will be a herculean task for Ruto to win the backing of either Luhya and or Kikuyu bloc to add to his Kalenjin base and therefore stand a chance of getting to State House.
“We are not taking chances. We will only back the referendum if it will create a pure parliamentary system of government. That way the Prime Minister who will be in-charge of the day to day running of government will be elected by Parliament,” said Majority Leader Aden Duale.
Two weeks ago, Duale told MPs that he and a group of politicians he chose not to name, but who are all believed to be pro-Ruto, will support the referendum if it creates a federal system of government or a parliamentary system.
Currently Kenya has presidential system where executive power is exercised by the president and in his absence his deputy.
Ruto’s team believes that the Presidency may be slipping out of their hands and the best bet would be to change the rules and then gun for an executive PM job.