The game of politics in Kenya requires people who are very keen with trends that tend to predict the future. With no doubt Deputy President William Ruto is that person.
He is always calculating his forward steps. Will he get it right this time round?
Politicians and close allies have hinted that DP Ruto will from the New Year campaign for the creation of an executive Prime Minister position in the event of a referendum.
In this proposal, Ruto’s team will press also for a ceremonial President and his deputy and two deputy Prime Ministers.
In a parliamentary system, the leader of the party with the largest number of MPs becomes the PM. The party leader is typically elected by party delegates during party polls. The president is normally a ceremonial Head of State.
In the event a party does not get more than 50 per cent of MPs in order to form government, the party leader can cobble together a coalition of other like-minded parties to make a majority.
Ruto has been forced into a tactical shift, according to his confidants, because he believes the writing is on the wall and he can longer bank on President Kenyatta’s support in 2022.
His handlers believe a parliamentary system will end the fratricidal wars sparked off by presidential election results every five years which is politically untenable in a young democracy because of the “tyranny of numbers”. The presidential duel, his allies say, is politically and socially too polarising for a country which needs cohesion after years of ethnic mistrust.
Ethnic alliances between the Kikuyu, Luhya, Kalenjins, Luo and Kamba traditionally determined who gets the job of President.
If Uhuru does not endorse his number two for the top job it will be a herculean task for Ruto to win the backing of either Luhya and or Kikuyu bloc to add to his Kalenjin base and therefore stand a chance of getting to State House.